The Indian stock market experienced a rollercoaster ride this week, driven by global cues, institutional movements, and investor sentiment that refused to stay down. While the week began with jitters and losses, a determined recovery emerged midweek, culminating in a calmer, steadier close.
Market Performance Overview
Key benchmark indices reflected a week of mixed sentiment but ended on a stable note. The Nifty 50 closed at 22,552.50, while the Sensex settled at 74,332.58. Volatility metrics, represented by the India VIX, eased slightly, signaling reduced investor anxiety.
Market Movement: From Fear to Recovery
Early Week: The week kicked off on shaky ground, with mounting concerns over U.S. tariff policies weighing heavily on Indian equities. The IT sector, in particular, felt the heat, dragging the Nifty IT index down by 0.7%. This added to investor anxiety after weeks of persistent selling pressure.
Mid-Week: By midweek, resilience began to shine through. Bargain hunters swooped in, particularly in the oversold IT sector, lifting the Nifty 50 by 2% across two sessions. This recovery signaled renewed confidence as investors sensed value in fundamentally strong stocks.
End of Week: The closing sessions saw a stabilizing effect. While U.S. tariff concerns lingered, steady buying helped calm the markets. The BSE Sensex ended marginally lower at 74,332.58, while the Nifty 50 inched upward to 22,552.50. The battle between caution and confidence seemed to balance out, with the bulls holding their ground.
FII/DII Activity Analysis
Institutional flows played a critical role in shaping market trends. While FIIs continued aggressive selling in the cash market, DIIs actively counterbalanced these outflows with steady buying.
| Date | FII Cash Market (₹ Cr) | DII Cash Market (₹ Cr) | FII Index Futures (₹ Cr) | FII Index Options (₹ Cr) | FII Stock Futures (₹ Cr) | FII Stock Options (₹ Cr) |
| Mar 3 | -4,788.29 | +8,790.70 | +146.04 | -1,523.60 | +2,493.27 | -1,575.51 |
| Mar 4 | -3,405.82 | +4,851.43 | -36.95 | +26,048.90 | +2,763.25 | -844.53 |
| Mar 5 | -2,895.04 | +3,370.60 | +410.57 | +1,294.42 | +842.75 | -656.26 |
| Mar 6 | -2,377.32 | +1,617.80 | +1,743.85 | -18,394.45 | +1,676.50 | -315.47 |
| Mar 7 | -2,035.10 | +2,320.36 | -277.64 | +15,742.10 | -1,642.50 | -252.82 |
Key Observations
- FII Cash Market: Outflows progressively declined over the week, reducing from ₹4,788 Cr on March 3 to ₹2,035 Cr by March 7.
- DII Cash Market: DIIs maintained strong inflows, with peak buying recorded on March 3 at ₹8,790 Cr.
- Derivatives Activity: FIIs exhibited contrasting behavior in index options, swinging between a major inflow of ₹26,048 Cr on March 4 and a significant outflow of ₹18,394 Cr on March 6.
Market Sentiment & Outlook
This week’s data underscores the balancing effect DIIs played in stabilizing the market, offsetting the impact of aggressive FII sell-offs. The declining India VIX further indicates reduced volatility, a positive sign for investor confidence.
Sector Insights
- IT Sector: After weeks of losses, the IT sector found renewed strength, particularly in midweek sessions, driven by value buying.
- Banking Sector: The weakness in IndusInd Bank created some jitters, but overall banking indices remained resilient.
- Energy Sector: Declining crude oil prices pressured upstream oil producers, while downstream refiners gained from improved margins.
Commodity Market Insights
In the commodities space, two key assets stood out:
- Gold: Prices experienced a slight pullback on Friday but managed to secure a weekly gain. This was largely attributed to safe-haven buying after U.S. job data hinted at economic cooling, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.
- Crude Oil: Oil prices faced volatility, ultimately closing with a 3.9% weekly loss despite a brief late-week recovery driven by hopes that the U.S. government may begin replenishing its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Bulk Deals That Mattered
Institutional activity played a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment this week. Key bulk deals included:
- Triveni Turbine: Graviton Research Capital LLP made a significant purchase of 2,155,394 shares, strengthening confidence in the stock.
- Route Mobile Limited: Graviton Research Capital LLP offloaded shares, signaling some strategic repositioning.
- IndusInd Bank: Integrated Core Strategies dumped a notable volume of shares, contributing to a 4.1% dip in the stock’s value over three sessions.
- Cambridge Technology Enterprises Ltd.: On the BSE, 114,052 shares changed hands at an average price of ₹54.64, adding to the week’s overall activity.
Key Economic Data: The Jobs Report and ECB’s Stance
Two significant developments shaped global sentiment:
- U.S. Jobs Report: The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, from 4% in January, indicating a modest cooling in the labor market. This data suggests that while job growth continues, it is at a slower pace, which could influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- ECB Announcement: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged but signaled a softer stance on inflation control. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated the possibility of rate cuts by mid-2025, boosting global risk appetite and encouraging equity gains midweek.
Nasdaq’s 24-Hour Trading Plan
Adding to global market buzz, Nasdaq’s announcement of a 24-hour trading plan grabbed investor attention. The move is expected to increase global market participation, especially from Asian investors, further intertwining major economies.
Looking Ahead: Lessons from the Week
Despite starting on a grim note, the Indian stock market found its footing as determined buyers stepped in to recover lost ground. The resilience of domestic investors, strategic bulk buying, and easing concerns about Fed policy played a pivotal role in helping markets shake off their earlier blues.
As traders eye the weeks ahead, the interplay between global cues and local strength will likely continue to guide market movements. The lesson from this week? Fear may dominate for a moment, but resilience can turn tides just as quickly.